Jun Ishii (UC Irvine) and Jingming Yan (Cornerstone Research)
The paper presents an empirical model of the "make or buy" decision faced
by independent power producers (IPP) in restructured U.S. wholesale electricity
markets. The model is applied to plant-level data that track the investment
decisions of major IPPs from 1996 to 2000, yielding estimates of each firm's
investment cost and expected profit functions. The estimates are used to
evaluate the effectiveness of divestiture programs (which sold utility power
plants to IPPs) in encouraging greater IPP participation. The estimates
and counterfactual simulations indicate that a minimal amount of new power
plant investments were "crowded out" by divestiture and that divestiture
encouraged greater (short-run) entry, especially among utility-affiliated
IPPs.
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