Using Environment Emissions Permit Prices to Raise Electricity Prices:
Evidence from the California Electricity Market
Jonathan Kolstad (Stanford University)
Frank Wolak (Stanford University)
This paper analyzes the extent to which the conditions in the emissions
permit market for oxides of nitrogen (NOx) operated by the South Coast
Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) in the Los Angeles metropolitan
area interacted with competitive conditions in the California electricity
market to enhance the ability of electricity suppliers with some or all
of their generation units located in SCAQMD to exercise unilateral market
power. We present evidence consistent with the view that NOx emissions
permits were a convenient vehicle for enhancing the ability of suppliers
to exercise unilateral market power in the California electricity market.
We find that generation unit owners with some of their plants located
in the SCAQMD paid statistically significantly higher prices for 2000
and 2001 NOx emissions permits than other participants in the SCAQMD emissions
market, despite the fact the prices they paid for 1998 and 1999 vintage
permits were no different from other SCAQMD participants. We then present
evidence consistent with the view that wholesale electricity suppliers
did not operate and bid their generation units requiring NOx emissions
permits in a manner consistent with higher emission permit prices being
a cause of increased production costs. Taken together, this evidence suggests
that NOx emission permit prices during 2000 and 2001 were primarily used
by these generation unit owners to cost-justify higher bids into the California
electricity market that would set higher prices for all electricity they
produced.
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