Testing Strategic Models of Firm Behavior in
Restructured Electricity Markets:
A Case Study of ERCOT
Ali Hortacsu, University of Chicago, and
Steven Puller, Texas A&M University
We examine the bidding behavior of firms competing on ERCOT, the hourly electricity
balancing market in Texas. We characterize an equilibrium model of bidding
into this uniform-price divisible-good auction market. Using detailed firm-level
data on bids and marginal costs of generation, we find that firms with large
stakes in the market performed close to theoretical benchmarks of static, profit-maximizing
bidding derived from our model. However, several smaller firms utilized excessively
steep bid schedules that deviated significantly from our theoretical benchmarks,
in a manner that could not be empirically accounted for by the presence of technological
adjustment costs, transmission constraints, or collusive behavior. Our results
suggest that payoff scale matters in firms' willingness and ability to participate
in complex, strategic market environments. Finally, although smaller firms moved
closer to theoretical bidding benchmarks over time, their bidding patterns contributed
to productive inefficiency in this newly restructured market, along with efficiency
losses due to the close-to optimal exercise of
market power by larger firms.
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