"The 'Supply-of-Storage'
for Natural Gas in California"
Rocío Uría and Jeffrey Williams
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Davis
Ph.D. candidate, Daniel Barton Deloach Professor and member, Giannini Foundation
Do natural gas storage decisions in California respond to futures price spreads?
Daily data about flows into and out of storage facilities in California over
2001-2005 and daily price spreads on NYMEX are used to investigate whether the
net injection profile is consistent with the “supply-of-storage”
curve first observed for wheat by Holbrook Working. Storage decisions in California
do seem to be influenced by intertemporal signals on NYMEX, but the effect is
small. Strong seasonal and weekly cycles determine the net injection profile
to a considerable extent. Regulatory requirements and operational constraints
also limit the size of the response to intertemporal arbitrage opportunities.
Results are surprisingly sensitive to the degree of aggregation.
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