Market Structure and Competition:
A Cross-Market Analysis of U.S. Electricity Deregulation
James Bushnell, UCEI, Erin T. Mansur, Yale University, and
Celeste Saravia, UC Berkeley, Department of Economics
Abstract
This paper examines the importance of market characteristics in restructured
electricity markets. We measure market performance relative to benchmarks that
abstract away from market design characteristics but capture important structural
elements. Specifically, we estimate market outcomes under an assumption of perfect
competition and under an assumption of Cournot competition in three U.S. markets:
California, New England, and PJM. These two counter-factual assumptions bound
the space of possible static, non-cooperative outcomes. By establishing where
actual market outcomes fall within these bounds, we can
compare how markets perform relative to the extremes determined by structural
factors alone. Our findings suggest that vertical arrangements between suppliers
and retailers, dramatically affect estimated market outcomes. When we include
vertical arrangements in firms’ objective functions, Cournot equilibrium
prices in both PJM and New England fall dramatically. California did not have
such arrangements. After accounting for vertical arrangements, performance in
each market relative to Cournot is similar, particularly during hours of peak
demand.
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