University of California Energy Institute

PWP-056

Water and Power: Hydroelectric Resources in the Era of Competition in the Western U.S.

James Bushnell

In PWP-056, Bushnell develops a modeling framework for analyzing competition between multiple firms that each possess a mixture of hydroelectric and thermal generation resources.  Based upon the Cournot concept of oligopoly competition, the model searches for a sub-game perfect Cournot equilibrium of a multiperiod hydro-thermal scheduling problem. Using this modeling framework, Bushnell examines the potential impact of strategic hydro scheduling in the electricity markets of California and the Pacific northwest.  He finds that some firms may find it profitable to allocate considerably more hydro production to off-peak periods relative to peak periods. This strategy is a marked contrast to the optimal hydro-schedules that would arise if no firms were acting strategically.