Erin T. Mansur (Berkeley and UCEI)
The Pennsylvania - New Jersey - Maryland (PJM)
spot market for wholesale electricity was restructured by enabling firms
to switch from "cost-based'' bidding to unregulated, "market-based'' bidding
in April of 1999. During the first five months of this phase of restructuring,
the market-clearing price exceeded the marginal cost of the most expensive
power plant almost three times as often as the previous summer. This paper
compares market prices with estimates of the prices that would clear a
competitive market, namely the marginal cost of producing electricity.
I follow the methodology of measuring market imperfections from the literature
while accounting for features unique to the PJM market.
I find evidence of market imperfections leading
to an increase in total spot market costs of about 41 percent. I use the
markup estimates to compare the PJM experience with that of California
during the start of each market. Even though the PJM price cap was four
times that of California, markup and total cost estimates using comparable
techniques for the first summer of the California market are very similar
to my estimates for PJM.
Unlike California, restructuring in PJM did
not lead to substantial changes in the ownership of generating assets.
The majority of the electricity in PJM comes from self-supplied generation
of vertically integrated utilities that face retail price caps. The effect
of market power will be diminished since firms' incentives to drive up
price depend on the degree to which production exceeds their native loads.
I find that the PJM spot market had costs exceeding those of a perfectly
competitive market by $224 million during the summer of 1999. If similar
markups affected demand met with bilateral contracts, my measure of the
total cost of market power increases to $827 million.
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