University of California Energy Institute

PWP-085

TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, PEAK

DEMAND, AND GENERATING CAPACITY IN

CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GRID

1977-2000

 

Jolanka V. Fisher and Timothy P. Duane (UC Berkeley)

    This study analyzes state and regional electricity supply and demand trends for the eleven states in the
Western Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC) from 1977 to 2000. New utility capacity additions
dropped off throughout the west beginning around 1989-1990, lowering reserve margins and installed
capacity per consumption ratios. Only two of the eleven western states installed more new utility-owned
capacity during the second decade of the 1977-1998 period than during the first decade. California’s
installed utility capacity grew by only 28% from 1977 to 1998, but the state added another 10,000 MW of
non-utility capacity (resulting in an overall capacity increase of 57%). California therefore added new
generating capacity relative to increases in its consumption at a higher rate than all but two states (in part
because California is the lowest user of electricity per capita and per dollar of gross state product in the
west). Annual WSCC consumption increased 64% from 1977 to 1998, but California’s consumption
grew by only 44% during this period. Summer peak demand increased throughout the WSCC from 1995
to 1999 by roughly 13,000 MW, but California accounted for only 5-6% of the total increase during this
period. Finally, winter peak demand increased throughout the WSCC from 1995 to 1999 by roughly
6,700 MW; California accounted for about 45% of the total increase during this period.

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